DNV GL – Maritime has released the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050. The purpose of Maritime Forecast to 2050 is to enhance the ability of shipping stakeholders, especially shipowners, to navigate the technological, regulatory and market uncertainties in the industry, and set shipping on a pathway to decarbonisation. It is based on a library of 30 scenarios which project future fleet composition, energy use, fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. Sixteen different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems are modelled in the report.
“The grand challenge of our time is finding a pathway towards decarbonisation,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “Reducing GHG emissions is rapidly becoming the defining decision-making factor for the future of the shipping industry. The pressure to act decisively is mounting. Perfect is the enemy of good, and so we mustn’t wait for an ideal solution to arrive and risk making no progress at all. Using a wide range of scenarios involving different fuel types and technologies, and varying degrees of regulatory pressure, our new report helps to map a way forward, offering shipowners clear insights on how to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.”
The Maritime Forecast identifies the choice of fuel as the essential factor in decarbonising shipping. The industry is at the beginning of a transition phase, with many potential options emerging alongside conventional fuels. This increasingly diverse fuel environment means that engine and fuel choice now represent potential risks that could lead to a stranded asset. Factoring in the impacts of availability, prices and policy, on different fuels, makes the choice even more complex.
To capture this complexity and help make this picture clearer the Maritime Forecast offers a wide range of scenarios, outlining the potential risks of a particular fuel choice. To make the ramifications concrete, alongside the pathways, the Maritime Forecast includes detailed analysis of a Panamax bulk carrier newbuilding. By stress testing technology decisions under the various pathways and scenarios, the Forecast presents potential performance and the carbon robustness of the various design choices.
The 30 scenarios result in widely different outcomes for the fuel mix in the fleet. In the scenarios with no decarbonization ambitions, very low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and LNG dominate. While under the decarbonization pathways, in 2050 a variety of carbon-neutral fuels holds between 60 per cent and 100 per cent market share.
Under the decarbonisation scenarios it is hard to identify clear winners among the many different fuel options. Fossil LNG gains a significant share until regulations tighten in 2030 or 2040. Bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG and e-LNG emerge as drop-in fuels for existing ships. By 2050, E-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol frequently end up with a strong share of the market and are the most promising carbon-neutral fuels in the long run.
A surprising result from the model is the relative limited uptake of hydrogen as a ship fuel, as a result of both the estimated price of the fuel and the investment costs for the engine and fuel systems. Hydrogen, however, plays an integral role as a building block in the production of several carbon-neutral fuels such as e-ammonia, blue ammonia and e-methanol, all of which gain significant uptake under the decarbonization pathways. It may also find niche applications in some vessel types, such as ferries and cruise vessels, as well as in specific regions where investments have been made into local production and distribution.
The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the world’s energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten world regions.
The full Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be downloaded here.
German-based maritime software provider Hanseaticsoft has announced that its cloud-based planned maintenance solution has been certified by DNV GL, highlighting its compliance with all recognised industry standards. This module was also recently certified by Lloyd’s Register.
The first in-water remote ship surveys using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) have been completed by classification society, DNV GL.
Kongsberg Maritime and Massterly (a Kongsberg Wilhelmsen joint venture) have signed contracts with the Norwegian grocery distributor ASKO to equip two new vessels with autonomous technology, and to manage its operations at sea.
Tanker company TORM has imported data from SERTICA Planned Maintenance System to DNV GL to digitalise surveys and improve performance.
An autonomous drone inspection has successfully taken place onboard a 19.4 metre high oil tank onboard a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel.
DNV GL and ABB have signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to accelerate digitalisation in the maritime industry. The agreement was signed remotely by DNV GL – Maritime CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen and ABB Marine & Ports managing director Juha Koskela in an online ceremony.
DNV GL has launched a new certification in infection prevention for the maritime industry. The release of this custom certification aims to help the maritime industry resume operations better prepared for COVID-19 or other emerging pathogens. Genting Cruise Lines is the first customer working towards the CIP-M certification for its vessel “Explorer Dream” under the Dream Cruises brand.
The Thome Group has successfully undergone a series of remote audits with DNV GL in various locations due to the widespread lockdown restrictions across the globe.
DNV GL and technology company Alpha Ori Technologies (AOT) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in which they agree to work together to contribute to the marine industry’s ongoing digital transformation.
Digital Ship magazine provides the latest information about maritime satellite communications technology, software systems, navigation technology, computer networks, data management and TMSA. It is published ten times a year.
Digital Ship Ltd
Digital Ship - Digital Energy Journal
39-41 North Road