DNV GL – Maritime has released the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050. The purpose of Maritime Forecast to 2050 is to enhance the ability of shipping stakeholders, especially shipowners, to navigate the technological, regulatory and market uncertainties in the industry, and set shipping on a pathway to decarbonisation. It is based on a library of 30 scenarios which project future fleet composition, energy use, fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. Sixteen different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems are modelled in the report.
“The grand challenge of our time is finding a pathway towards decarbonisation,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “Reducing GHG emissions is rapidly becoming the defining decision-making factor for the future of the shipping industry. The pressure to act decisively is mounting. Perfect is the enemy of good, and so we mustn’t wait for an ideal solution to arrive and risk making no progress at all. Using a wide range of scenarios involving different fuel types and technologies, and varying degrees of regulatory pressure, our new report helps to map a way forward, offering shipowners clear insights on how to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.”
The Maritime Forecast identifies the choice of fuel as the essential factor in decarbonising shipping. The industry is at the beginning of a transition phase, with many potential options emerging alongside conventional fuels. This increasingly diverse fuel environment means that engine and fuel choice now represent potential risks that could lead to a stranded asset. Factoring in the impacts of availability, prices and policy, on different fuels, makes the choice even more complex.
To capture this complexity and help make this picture clearer the Maritime Forecast offers a wide range of scenarios, outlining the potential risks of a particular fuel choice. To make the ramifications concrete, alongside the pathways, the Maritime Forecast includes detailed analysis of a Panamax bulk carrier newbuilding. By stress testing technology decisions under the various pathways and scenarios, the Forecast presents potential performance and the carbon robustness of the various design choices.
The 30 scenarios result in widely different outcomes for the fuel mix in the fleet. In the scenarios with no decarbonization ambitions, very low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and LNG dominate. While under the decarbonization pathways, in 2050 a variety of carbon-neutral fuels holds between 60 per cent and 100 per cent market share.
Under the decarbonisation scenarios it is hard to identify clear winners among the many different fuel options. Fossil LNG gains a significant share until regulations tighten in 2030 or 2040. Bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG and e-LNG emerge as drop-in fuels for existing ships. By 2050, E-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol frequently end up with a strong share of the market and are the most promising carbon-neutral fuels in the long run.
A surprising result from the model is the relative limited uptake of hydrogen as a ship fuel, as a result of both the estimated price of the fuel and the investment costs for the engine and fuel systems. Hydrogen, however, plays an integral role as a building block in the production of several carbon-neutral fuels such as e-ammonia, blue ammonia and e-methanol, all of which gain significant uptake under the decarbonization pathways. It may also find niche applications in some vessel types, such as ferries and cruise vessels, as well as in specific regions where investments have been made into local production and distribution.
The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the world’s energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten world regions.
The full Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be downloaded here.
Weilbach, Vento Maritime and Force Technology have joined forces to develop a new digital route optimisation solution.
The MV Balboa
Klaveness Ship Management has expanded its contract with DNV GL after a successful pilot of the DNV GL Veracity platform.
The contract expansion will see another eight Klaveness vessels use Veracity. According to the companies, the pilot project, which began in 2019, indicated that a reduction in fuel consumption was possible by combining and visualising operational, positioning and engine data.
Norwegian advanced Offshore Service Vessel (OSV) owner and operator Golden Energy Offshore has cut fuel consumption by 20 per cent by collaborating with Kongsberg Maritime on vessel performance monitoring and installing KONGSBERG’s SAVe Energy battery system.
Hamburg-based ship manager CPO Containerschiffreederei (CCPO) has secured a contract for ABB Ability Tekomar XPERT for its fleet of 55 vessels.
Diesel power specialist Royston has enhanced its Eco Speed analysis capability as part of its enginei electronic fuel management system (EFMS) to enable ship operators to identify and maintain optimum vessel speeds for efficient fuel usage across different operational modes.
ZF and Rolls-Royce are developing and testing a new electronic monitoring system for ships to help reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
Electronic fuel monitoring systems (EFMS) supplier FUELTRAX has announced formal compatibility with data integration service provider, Opsealog.
MOL Nordic Tankers has decided to extend the trial of BunkerMetric's fuel management and planning tool that it has been piloting on five of its vessels since the end of 2018.
French ferry operator La Méridionale is progressing with the digitalisation of its fleet in partnership with Eniram, a Wärtsilä company, having implemented Eniram’s range of energy management technology to more efficiently use its resources and reduce its impact on the environment.
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